Home Login Subscribe Publications Economic Analysis Markets & Trading Sitemap Diversions Contact
This is an easy-to-follow chart of major U.S. economic reports, categorized by their bond market implications. For our current interpretations and forecasts of economic conditions, please click here.

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

 

  Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul
GROWTH S N W VW VW W W S S N W VS W N S N L S VS N S N S N S S N S N N N
INFLATION N L L L L N L R VH R L R N L N R N R L D R N N N N L VH N L N N

Growth key:

 Very Weak Weak Neutral Strong Very Strong
Inflation key: Deflation Low Neutral Rising Very High

ECONOMIC REPORT TRENDS AT-A-GLANCE

This table tracks the bond market implications of all major U.S. economic reports. The reports are divided into two categories: Economic Strength and Inflation.  Weak economic reports are considered "Bullish" for bonds while strong reports are "Bearish"

Date

 ECONOMY Bull NA Bear INFLATION Bull NA Bear
2/15/07 Phila Fed Feb dn to .6 X            
  Ind Prod Jan down .5% X            
  Cap Util Jan dn to 81.2% X            
  Empire St Idx Feb up to 24.4     X        
2/14/07 Retail Sales up 0.0% Jan X     Import Prices Jan unch X    
  Sales ex-autos up .3% x X          
  Bus Inventory Dec up .0%   X          
2/7/07 Cons Credit Dec up $6bn   X   Productivity Q4 up 3.0% x X  
2/2/07 Unemp Rate Jan up to 4.6% X            
  Payrolls Jan up 111,000 X x          
  Hour earnings up .2% X x          
  Avg Workweek unch @33.8   X          
  Factory Orders Dec up 2.4%     X        
2/1/07 Pers Income Dec up .5%     X        
  Pers Spending up .7%     X        
  Pers Savings down .2%     X        
  ISM Index Jan dn to 49.3 x X          
1/31/07 GDP Advanced Q4 up 3.5%   X x Deflator Q4 up 1.5% saar X    
  Chicago PMI Jan dn to 48.8 X x          
  Const Spend Dec dn .4% X            
1/26/07 New Home Sale up 4.5%     X        
1/25/07 Exist Home Sale Dec dn .1%   X          
  Durables Dec up 3.1%     X        
  Help Wtd Idx Dec up to 33   X x        
1/23/07 Lead Econ Indic Dec up .3%   X          
1/18/07 House Starts Dec up 4.5%     X CPI Dec up .5%     X
  Starts at 1.64mm SAAR     X CPI Core up .2% x X  
  Permits up 6%     X        
  Permits at 1.59mm SAAR   X          
  Phila Fed Jan up to 8.3   X          
1/17/07 Ind Prod Dec up .4%   X x PPI Dec up .9%     X
  Cap Util unch at 81.8%   X   PPI Core Dec up .2% x X  
1/16/07 NY Empire St Idx Jan dn to 9.1 X            
1/13/07 Retail Sales Dec up .9%     X        
  Retail Sales ex auto up 1.0%     X        
1/10/07 Whlsle Inventory Nov up 1.3%     X Import Prices Dec up .4%   X x
1/8/07 Cons Credit Nov up $12.3bn     X        
1/5/07 Unemp Rate Dec unch 4.5%   X          
  Payrolls up 167k jobs   X          
  Hrly Earnings up .5%   X x        
  Avg Workwk Dec unch 33.9hr   X          
1/4/07 ISM Services dn slight @57.1   X          
  Factory Orders Nov up .9%     X        
1/3/07 ISM Idx Dec up slight to 51.4   X          
  Const SPend Nov down .2% X            
12/29/06 Help-Wtd Idx Nov unch @30   X          
12/28/06 Exist Home Sale unch   X          
  Cons Conf Dec up to 109.0     X        
  Chicago PMI Dec up slight 52.4   X          
  New Home Sale Nov up 3%   X          
12/22/06 Durables Nov up 1.9%   X          
  Pers Income Nov up .3%   X          
  Pers Spend Nov up .5%     X        
  Pers Saving down .2%     X        
12/21/06 GDP Final Q3 up 2.0% X x   GDP Deflator final up 1.9% x X  
  Leading Indicators Nov up .1% X            
  Phila Fed Dec down to -4.3% X            
12/19/06 House Starts Nov up 6.5%     X        
  Starts at 1.588mm units   X          
  Permits Nov down 3.5% X            
  Permits at 1.5mm units   X          
12/15/06 Ind Prod Nov up .2% x X   CPI Nov unch at 0% X    
  Cap Util Nov unch @ 81.8%   X   CPI Nov core unch at 0% XX    
12/14/06 NY Empire St Idx dn to 23.1 x X   Import Prices Nov up .7%     X
12/13/06 Ret Sales Nov up 1.0%     X        
  Ret Sale ex auto up 1.1%     XX        
  Bus Inventories up .4%   X          
12/11/06 Whlse Inventory Oct up .8%     X        
12/8/06 Avg workweek unch 33.9hr   X          
  Payrolls up 132,000 jobs   X          
  Unemp Rate up to 4.5% X            
  Hour Earnings up .2%   X          
12/7/06 Consumer Credit dn 1.2bn X            
  ISM Service up to 58.9     X        
  Factory Order Oct down 4.7% X            
12/1/06 Const Spend Oct down .1% X            
  ISM Idx Nov down to 49.5 X            
11/30/06 Help Wtd Idx Oct up 1 to 30   X          
  Chicago PMI Nov down to 49.9 X            
  Pers Inc Oct up .4%   X          
  Pers Spend up .2% X            
  Pers savings Oct up .2% X            
11/29/06 GDP PreQ3 up 2.2%   X   GDP Deflator up 1.8% X    
  New Home Sale down 3.5% X            
11/28/06 Exist Home Sale up .5% oct   X          
  Durables Oct down 8.3% XX            
  Cons Conf Nov @102.9   X          
11/20/06 Leading Indic Oct up .2%   X          
11/17/06 House Starts Oct dn 15% XX            
  Starts at 1.49mm units SAAR   XX          
  Bldg Permits down 6% X            
  Permits at 1.535mm units   XX          
11/16/06 Phila Fed Idx Nov up to 5.1   X          
  Ind Prod Oct up .2%   X          
  Cap Util Oct unch   X          
  NY Empire Idx Nov +@26.7     X CPI Oct down .5% X    
  Bus Inv Sep up .4%   X   CPI Core up .1% X    
11/14/06 Ret Sales Oct down .2% X     PPI Oct down 1.6% X    
  Ret ex auto down .4% XX     Core PPI down .9% XX    
  Whlse Inventory Sep up .8%     X        
11/9/06 Mich Sentiment Pre Nov 92.3 X     Import Prices Oct down .6% X    
11/7/06 Cons Credit Sep up only 1.2bn X            
11/3/06 Payrolls Oct up 92,000 jobs X     Hour Earnings up .4%   X  
  Unemployment Rate dn to 4.4%     X        
  Avg Workwk unch at 33.9   X          
  ISM Services up to 57.1     X        
11/2/06 Factory Orders Sep up 2.1%     X Unit Labor Costs Pre Q3 +3.8%     X
          Productivity Q3 unch     X
11/1/06 Const Spend Sep down .3%   X          
  Auto Sales Domestic Oct dn 5% X            
  ISM Idx Oct dn slight to 51.2   X          
10/31/06 Chicago PMI Oct dn to 53.5   X   Emp Cost Idx Q3 up 1.0% q-q   X x
  Cons Conf Oct dn slight 105.4   X          
10/30/06 Pers Disp Income Sep up .5%     X        
  Pers Spending up .1% X            
  Pers Savings up .4% X            
10/28/06 GDP Q3 Advance up 1.6% X     GDP Deflator Adv +1.8% X    
10/26/06 Durables Orders Sep up 7.8%     X        
  Help Wtd Idx Sep unch   X          
  New Home Sale Sep up 5%     X        
10/25/06 Exist Home Sales down 2% X            
10/19/06 Lead Econ Indic Sep up .1% X            
  Phila Fed Index =  -.7 X            
10/18/06 Housing Starts Sep up 6%     Xx CPI Sep down .5% X    
  Bldg Permits down 6% XX     CPI Core up .2% x x  
  Permits at 1.62mm units   X          
10/17/06 Ind Prod Sep down .6% X     PPI Sep down 1.3% XX    
  Capacity Util down to 81.9% X     PPI Core up .6%     X
10/16/06 NY Empire St Idx up to 22.9     X        
10/13/06 Retail Sales Sep down .4% X            
  Sales ex-auto down .5% X            
  Mich Sent Oct up to 92.3     X        
10/6/06 Unemp rate at 4.6%   X          
  Payrolls up 51,000 X            
  Avg workweek unch   X          
  Hourly earnings up .2% x X          
10/4/06 ISM Services down to 52.9 X            
  Factory Orders Aug unch X            
10/2/06 Const Spend Aug up 3.0%   X          
  ISM Index down to 52.9   X          
9/29/06 Pers Income Aug up .3%   X          
  Pers Spend up .1% X            
  CHicago PMI up to 62.1 Sep     X        
9/28/06 Help Wtd Idx Aug down 1 to 31 X            
  GDP Final Q2 rev down to 2.6% X     Deflator Final 3.3%   X x
9/27/06 Durables Aug down .5% X            
  New Home Sale up 4.8%     X        
9/26/06 Cons Conf Sep up to 104.5     X        
9/25/06 Exist Home Sale Aug unch   X          
9/21/06 Lead Econ Indic Aug down .2% XX            
  Phila Fed Sep down .4% X            
9/19/06 Bldg Permits down 1.5% X     PPI Aug up .1% X    
  Housing Start Aug down 6% XX     PPI Core down .4% XX    
  Housing Starts at 1.665mm   X          
9/15/06 Mich Sent Sep pre up 2pts   X   CPI Aug up .2% x X  
  Ind Prod Aug down .1% X     CPI core up .2% x X  
  Cap Util Aug down slightly X            
  NY Empire Idx up to 13.8   X          
9/14/06 Ret Sales Aug up .2%   X          
  Sales ex auto up .2%   X          
9/8/06 Cons Credit Jul low at $5.5bill X     Import Prices up .5%     X
9/1/06 Const Spending Jul down 1.2% X            
  ISM Index Aug unch @ 54.5   X          
  Unemp Rate Aug down to 4.7%   X          
  Payrolls up 128k   X          
  Hrly Earnings Aug up .1% X            
  Avg Workwk unch @ 33.8   X          
  Auto Sale Aug down 5% X            
8/31/06 Chicago PMI unch @ 57.1   X          
  Factory Orders Jul dn .6% X            
  Help Wtd Idx Jul down 2 pts X            
8/30/06 GDP Q2Prelim up 2.9%   X   Deflator Prelim up 3.3%   X x
8/29/06 Cons Conf Aug down 9 pts X            
8/24/06 New Home Sale Jul down 4.5% X            
8/23/06 Exist Home Sale down 4.5% X            
  Durables July down 2.4% X            
                 
                 
8/17/06 Leading Econ Indic down .1% XX            
  Phila Fed Aug up 12 to 18.5     X        
8/16/06 Ind Prod Jul up .4%     X        
  Cap Util unch   X          
  Bldg Permits Jul down 7% XX            
  Housing Starts down 3% X            
8/15/06 NY State Idx Aug dn 6 to 10.3 X     PPI Jul up .1% X    
          PPI Core down .3% XX    
8/11/06 Ret Sales Jul up 1.4%     X        
  Sales ex auto up 1.0%     X        
8/10/06 Bus Inventory up .8%     X Import Prices Jul down .1% X    
  Wholesale Inventory up .8%     X        
  Cons Credit Jun up to 10.3bn     X        
8/4/06 Unemp Rate Jul up to 4.8% X            
  Payrolls up 118K   X          
  Hour Earnings up .4%   X          
  Avg Workwk unch   X          
8/3/06 Factory Orders Jun up 1.2%     X        
  ISM Services down 3 to 54.8   X          
8/1/06 ISM Idx up 1 to 54.7   X          
  Pers Inc Jun up .6%              
  Pers Spend up .4%              
  Savings up .2% X