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FUTURES MARKET TIMING SIGNALS: STOCK INDICES
Last updated 8-5-04 |
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SYM | TECH - LT | TECH - ST | SEAS | POWER | OI | VOLAT |
SP: | Look to at least take out May lows | Likely to break May lows. Target 1050 ? | Bearish Sep/Oct ahead | Slightly supportive or unclear | Unc | Very low |
ND: |
Weak appearance | Sideways with downside drift. Targeting 1300? | Ditto | Unc | Avg to high | Very low |
RU: |
Needs to take out May low before any rally | Slight downside likely | Ditto | Very supportive | Avg. to high. Rising w/ selloff | |
NOTES: |
Stocks are currently digesting an unpopular July EPS season, forward earnings growth questions, a treacherous early Fall season, and national elections. July EPS was especially disappointing given the number of "busted" uptrends. While valuations are not cheap, many of the other classic "topping" signs are not present (IPO's, A/D divergence, high corporate bond spreads, etc.) and pullbacks from early 2004 highs have to this point been relatively shallow given the long uptrends from the Oct. '02 and Mar. '03 lows. We recommend a few weeks of patience on the sidelines here. | |||||
LEGEND |
TECH - LT: Long-term technical picture, usually based on weekly charts |
TECH - ST: Short-term technical picture, usually based on daily charts |
POWER: Interpretation of internal market power |
OI: Open interest analysis |
VOLAT: Volatility analysis |
Unc: Unclear or unremarkable |
NA: Not applicable |