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FUTURES MARKET TIMING SIGNALS: BOND MARKETS
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Last updated 8-5-04 |
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| SYM | TECH - LT | TECH - ST | SEAS | POWER | OI | VOLAT |
| TY: | On downtrend rally | Weak uptrend | Bottomed in bearish Apr/M. Peak N/D/J ahead | Very bullish, supporting current rally | High | Very low, bottoming |
| Keep very tight stops on longs as we see current upside as a rally in on-going downtrend. That said, economic reports are likely to come in on the weak side of street estimates. Thus, our eventual downside technical targets are at this point only slightly under the May lows. | ||||||
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US: |
Ditto | Ditto | Ditto | Ditto | Rising | Very low. Confirms general "sideways" bond pattern. |
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FV: |
Supportive of a bit more rally | Very high | ||||
| Stand aside. | ||||||
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NOTES: |
Recent interest rate moves, especially the downside break in early April and the sharp uptick on 8-6-04, reflect tremendous sensitivity to the economic outlook (and therefore the demand for credit). We expect economic reports to moderate, keeping a "floor" under notes and bonds just under the May lows. The situation may, in fact, revert to the "sideways channel" prevailing prior to the April breakdown. | |||||
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LEGEND |
| TECH - LT: Long-term technical picture, usually based on weekly charts |
| TECH - ST: Short-term technical picture, usually based on daily charts |
| POWER: Interpretation of internal market power |
| OI: Open interest analysis |
| VOLAT: Volatility analysis |
| Unc: Unclear or unremarkable |
| NA: Not applicable |
