BOTTOM

Last updated 8-5-04
SYM	TECH - LT	TECH - ST	SEAS	POWER	OI	VOLAT
DX:	Long DX decline is struggling to bottom. Bulls narrowly dominate but the July low must hold or a final retest of the Feb lows is most likely. Aug 6 selloff increases odds of final retest.		Jun/J is bullish but bearish N/D lies ahead	Bullish for at least a short term pop	FALLING IN JULY RALLY! Makes the rally more suspect	Falling, confirming the selloff from the May highs

EC:	Looking toppy, hugging support trendlines		Nov/D often bullish for Euro	Bearish	Very high	At a 6 mo. low
	Boxed between the Apr low and the July high. Which way to breakout ? Bearish power readings say any upside breakout will be very limited.
BP:	Similar to EC, with slightly stronger pattern		Ditto	Very bearish	OI FELL during July selloff (see DX)	Falling from Apr/M price low, confirming uptrend

SF:	Very toppy after 3 year upside	Selling off but near rally point	Ditto	Slightly supportive, may cap selloff ST	Very low	Confirms rally to July double top
	Very toppy.
JY:	Erratic but Apr high likely to hold	Lower highs, lower lows.	NA	Slightly supportive, may cap selloff ST	Rising into selloff, bearish.	Unc
	Official Japanese policy has supported a weaker Yen with massive intervention. April high seems likely to hold at this point.
AD:	Toppy	Further ST downside to break Jun low		Supportive of a rally, especially near any Jun low retest	Low	Rising, confirms the selloff from Feb highs
	A short-term bounce is likely around the June lows. Thereafter, further downside is probable.
CD:	Test of Jan highs is now likely	Test of Jan highs ahead?		Bearish	Flat	Unc.
	A marginal test of the Jan high is our best guess. Note, however, bearish power readings. We prefer the sidelines.
ME:	Technical bottom is near	In major bottoming pattern		Supportive	Flat
	The peso appears to be near a major bottom after long selloff from '02 highs. Note that the weak peso has been very good for the Mexican economy which has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the world thanks to exports fueled by the cheap ME. Also note the strong rallies in the Mexican stock markets.
NOTES:	Interest rates, fundamentals, policy, the economic cycle stage, global central bank preferences, and inflation all support a shift to a stronger dollar environment. But putting in the DX bottom has not been a smooth process. Given the 8-6 selloff we now narrowly favor our mid-July view of a mild retest of the Feb. dollar lows. This would certainly be the most tradable technical pattern.